The Eagles vs. 49ers pick opens Sunday as the two juggernauts face off in the NFC Championship Game at Lincoln Financial Stadium. Super Bowl LVII.
San Francisco faces one of the few underdog teams, with Philadelphia leading the Eagles-49ers odds by 2.5 points as of Saturday night.
The Eagles looked dominant with a 38-7 win, going 15-1 straight up (SU) and 11-9 against the spread (ATS) in the game started by Jalen Hurts. giants in a divisional round.
The 49ers finished the regular season with the league’s best points differential (+173) and won 12 straight quarterbacks, including seven against Mr. Inrelevant and Brock Purdy. They are 15-4 SU and 13-6 ATS overall, including Purdy’s 6-1 ATS.
Eagles vs 49ers odds
Eagles vs. 49ers Matchup Analysis
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Eagles vs. 49ers DVOA (Regular Season + Playoffs) Breakdown
|Rush DVOA||13||twenty one||
Eagles Offense vs. 49ers Defense
Jalen Hurts’ sample size is twice that of Brock Purdy’s, but factors such as injuries, opponent strength, and tendencies combine to make it arguably more difficult to gauge the current state of the Eagles’ offense.
Three of Hearts’ last four games have been against the Giants, who are ranked 30th in the defensive DVOA. The fourth was the opposite. bearhad literally the worst defense in the league against passes and runs this season, ranking 32nd overall in the DVOA.
Hearts have not faced a defense other than a bottom three since Week 13. Titans Although they were 19th overall in defense, they were 28th in passing. was on the decline.
- First 8 games: 68.2% completion, 8.5 yards per attempt, 0.7% INT ratio
- Last 8 matches: 64.9% completion rate, 7.4 yards per attempt, 1.6% INT rate
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Hearts didn’t see a Rusher-like recession in the second half until the injury. he averaged 11.4 bring He gained 52.9 yards in his first 14 games, but carried just 9.0 yards for 26.5 yards in two games since returning from injury.
His nine carries for 34 yards in the divisional rounds are an improvement over Week 18 (9 carries for 17 yards), but they’re still well below his normal output. Allows opposing halfbacks a league-low 3.29 yards per carry, so Hearts’ contribution on the ground will be key to keeping Philly’s offense on schedule.
The 49ers are the fourth top 10 defense Hearts have faced and the first since Week 10. Even those games should be taken with a grain of salt as they were all against divisional opponents, but there is evidence to suggest the Eagles offense won. Don’t be superhuman against San Francisco:
- Eagles Offense and Hearts vs. Top 10 Defense: 23.7 points scored, 310.7 total yards, 5.1 yards per play
- Eagles Offense and Hearts vs. Non-Top 10 Defense: 30.8 points, 411.0 total yards, 6.0 yards per play
Broadly speaking, the 49ers are playing the zone at a top 5 rating and will likely continue to do so. The Eagles average nearly two full-his yards less than the Hearts starting pitcher (9.8) on target against the Zone (8.0).
Specifically, the Demeco Ryans are likely to continue dialing up a ton of cover 3s, which the 49ers play for the 7th highest percentage. Cover 3 is the only type of cover that Hearts has added negative expected points per play this season.
QB effectiveness and coverage for each division weekend. Jalen Hurts is very bad against cover 3s and facing the 49ers (35% of plays playing cover 3s, 7th highest rate) is something worth noting on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/xfoQINYiY4
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) January 25, 2023
Hearts’ relative struggle against Cover 3 makes sense. This allows the defense to have an extra man in the box to help the run and read the cover to force the top to win.
According to the PFF, the Hearts have a 39.7% pass completion rate over 20 yards downfield, ranking 23rd among 36 quarterbacks who qualify. This is likely one of the ways the defense adjusted in the second half of the season against Hearts. He increased his aDOT from 7.6 in the first eight games to 9.3 in the last eight games, but his efficiency per attempt dropped from 8.5 yards to 7.4.
An Eagles counter may have 12 or more people. The 49ers allow him 0.05 EPA/play more off base defense, according to Sports Info Solutions. Specifically, against 12, they allowed his 65% completion percentage, 9.0 yards on one attempt, 6 touchdowns, and 1 aerial interception.
We saw a lot of 12 players from the Eagles last week. No. 2 tight end Jack Stoll had season highs with 37 snaps and his 53% snap percentage (excluding the game Dallas Gedard missed). Staying on this roster likely also comes with a steady dose of play action passes where the 49ers defense is showing cracks, allowing +0.07 EPA/play compared to -0.17 for non-play action passes .
The question is how effectively can you take action to force the Eagles to pass attacks. According to Pro Football Focus, Hearts has more attempts than a non-play action pass (7.6) if he used play action (7.9) during the regular season as he finished 31st out of 41 quarterbacks. Only 0.3 yards per he was.
49ers Offense vs. Eagles Defense
The Eagles are the second Top 5 defense Brock Purdy has faced this season, and the second in the same few weeks.
before facing cowboys With a defense ranked 2nd in DVOA and 6th against passing, Purdy never faced a defense ranked higher than 10th overall or 13th against passing. Against excellent defense, Purdy led his 49ers to his 19 points and 312 total yards. This is a far cry from his 34.8 points and his 404.3 yards in his first six starts.
Purdy was under pressure last week with 48.5% of dropbacks and now faces an Eagles defense that leads the league in pressure percentage. He completed only 4 of 12 passes for 55 yards under pressure against the Cowboys. For the season, he averaged 46.9% completion percentage when under pressure, though he averaged 6.6 yards per attempt, but clean 73.3% completion percentage out of his pocket and he finished 9.1%. Better than YPA.
One thing Purdy has done well under pressure is defending the ball. When under pressure, he has only one interception and two turnover-worthy plays in 65 attempts. Whether clean or under pressure, his decision-making has been on the upswing lately, and he hasn’t had a turnover-worthy throw in his last three games (79 attempts).
With the 49ers averaging 31.0 design runs and 29.4 design passes in Purdy starts, we should expect a run-heavy game plan from head coach Kyle Shanahan.
This is especially true as Purdy posted a negative EPA/play against Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon’s staple cover 4 (-0.059). However, Purdy’s worst came against cover 2 man, so I think the Eagles will increase the use of his cover man. This allows Darius Slay and James Bradbury to influence more throws.
Purdy is lucky to have a Shanahan conspiracy play. Shanahan’s offense is leading the league in his motion pre-snap and could be a big factor here. The Eagles pass his defense he’s 1st in EPA/play and he’s 22nd compared to without the pre-nap motion.
Leveraging the Eagles on the ground isn’t as easy as it was at the beginning of the season. Since week 10, Limbal Joseph and Damcon have improved since adding Ranstaff to his sue.
- Weeks 1-10: Rush DVOA (28th) 5.5%, Early Down Rush 43.8% success rate (29th)
- Week 11-Present: -11.4% Rush DVOA (15th), 35.6% Early Down Rush Success Rate (9th)
San Francisco’s rushing offense is 13th in the DVOA this season, but 4th since acquiring Christian McCaffrey in Week 7. 11th week.
The referee of this game, John Hussey, is known for letting them play.
according to NFLPenalties.com, Hussey has called 9.13 penalties per game this season. This is his second lowest, falling short of the league average (11.14) more than once for him.
Hussey calls fewer penalties on both sides of the ball, but it is the defense that tends to benefit more. Compared to league averages, Hussey has 51% fewer defensive holds and 16% fewer defensive passes and interferences. He also called a passer rough just once all season, which is 82% below the league average for him.
John Hussey references NFC championship game between 49ers and Eagles (O/U 46.5)…
Since 2015, $100 bettors get $1,138 up on betting Under on Hussey🤑 pic.twitter.com/cjb2MPPudg
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 27, 2023
The Eagles will play inside the key number 3 if they are confident they are getting the best versions of Hearts as runners and passers. If you can be sure otherwise, the 49ers will play.
As it stands, the truth is probably somewhere in the middle, making this game a toss-up slightly in favor of the Eagles, but not enough to bet either side (if it doesn’t get +3, I cant would) 49ers).
What we can more definitely expect is that this game has a lot of runs, a lot of heavy manpower, a lot of defensive pressure, two defenses that can hold back enemy attacks with less efficiency than usual, It contains less defensive penalties. Point down.
About us action lab The data shows Hussey under 56-39-1 (59%) in matches refereeed outdoors, including an 8-3 (73%) mark this season.
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