How much does a ping pong ball weigh?
It literally weighs less than 2.7 grams, or a tenth of an ounce. But for some NHL franchises (especially this year), it’s the weight of the world, the future of entire organizations, and their best hope of getting out of their current doldrums.
The NHL Draft Lottery will take place on May 8 at a studio inside the NHL Network headquarters in Secaucus, New Jersey. Just 17-years-old forward Connor Bedard from Vancouver, B.C., who skyrocketed to hockey celebrity status, will determine who will take on the NHL’s next “generation” of talent.
The Anaheim Ducks have the best chance of winning Bedard at 25.5% among 11 eligible non-playoff teams thanks to finishing with the league’s worst record. Next are the Columbus Blue Jackets (13.5%), Chicago Blackhawks (11.5%), San Jose Sharks (9.5%) and Montreal Canadiens (8.5%).
The NHL has changed its lottery format several times over the years to serve three different purposes.
- Give clubs at the bottom of the league their best shot at drafting the next wave of talent
- Establishing a fair but not guaranteed process in the hope that the club will not “tank” (deliberately lose) to guarantee a particular draft pick
- To have a drama-filled process for as many clubs as possible
Its final purpose is…
From 2001 to 2014, clubs could only move up four spots in the lottery, so only the five worst clubs in the league had a chance to pick first place.
Teams can now jump 10 slots in the lottery, thanks to changes introduced in the 2021 draft. This means that the 11 teams that finished last in the rankings (all the way down to Vancouver (3%)) have a chance to pick #1.
Teams ranked 12th to 16th on the standings cannot move up to 1st place in the lottery. If any of these five teams win the lottery, they will move up to his 10th in the standings and Anaheim will automatically be declared the winner.
That’s why Dax, who is listed as having an 18.5% chance of winning the lottery, actually has a 25.5% chance of winning. (From 12th he adds his chances to the 16th team’s percentage, plus he adds 7%.)
However, teams have a chance to bounce the draft board, but they can only go so far. So Anaheim is in his top three, Columbus is in his top four, and so on.
How does the lottery selection process work? It may sound like a riddle and it may feel like more math than most of us welcome. We hire an outside accounting firm to handle the
First, 14 ping-pong balls are thrown into a lottery machine, each numbered from 1 to 14 (1, 2, 3, etc.). why 14? There are 1,001 four-digit combinations from 1 to 14, and he needs 1,000 numbers for the league to draw.
One of the 1,001 number combinations is randomly selected and removed from the pool of possible numbers, leaving 1,000 numbers in the process.
Each NHL club in the lottery is then assigned a series of 4-digit numbers randomly selected according to the lottery odds. Anaheim has 185 number combinations, as he has an 18.5% chance based on the final standings, but from 12th he is still up 10 if the 16th-placed team wins and he moves up 10 places. win. Combining these five clubs gives him a 7% chance of winning (70 four-number combinations), and the Dachs 255 four-number combination leads to his #1 pick.
Columbus is next with 13.5% (135 four-number combinations), Chicago with 11.5% (115), San Jose with 9.5% (95), Montreal with 8.5% (85), and so on.
The list of numbers is then published by the league, as is the 1,001st number previously reserved at random. Then comes the lottery, but actually he has two draws.
Pick the #1 pick first. His four number combinations coming out of the lottery machine are matched against a list of numbers to determine which team wins. If one of the bottom 11 teams, that club will take his first place, and possibly Bedard.
If the winner is the team numbered 12-12. In the 16 range, the Ducks are assigned the 1st pick, and that “winning” team gets him 10 spots from the preset lottery odds. (So Ottawa could go from his 12th to him to 2nd, Buffalo from his 13th to him to 3rd, and so on.)
A second drawing will then take place to determine the second highest available spot. (Unless Ottawa wins the lottery, this will be the second overall pick.)
For the 2022 lottery, the “winning” numbers are 1-3-4-13, corresponding to Montreal, who entered the draft with the best odds (18.5%). The Canadiens selected winger Juraj Slavkovski with the first pick.
The second number combination was 3-5-10-14, which corresponded to New Jersey. The Devils moved up from fifth to second.
One can only imagine the drama behind the scenes as the numbers are revealed.
In the NHL, representatives of all lottery teams are required to be present as witnesses, and each witness swears confidentiality until the television is shown (mobile phones are held by security and no one is in the room). are not allowed to exit). The show will air some time later.
What fans will see on the league’s primetime TV shows are highly organized, televised events hosted by NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daley. He stands behind a high table and lifts up a placard with each club’s logo to reveal the draft order.
Despite independent accounting firms, multiple witnesses, and complex systems, conspiracy theories are rife across the hockey world, with the NHL weighing in on the scale each year and determining which franchises have access to top prospects. It claims to be determined.
To that end, for several seasons, the league has released videos showing the actual lottery draw that determines the order of selection.
(Photo of Gary Bettman in the 2022 Draft Lottery: Mike Stobe / NHLI via Getty Images)