When the cards finally changed and the Chicago Blackhawks were anointed as the winners of the 2023 NHL Draft Lottery and, by extension, Conor Bedard, a collective groan was evident among many of the sport’s fans.
And that’s especially true in Detroit, where Red Wings fans look to them as a big market and the Original Six foes have just one year in the mud to get their big break that continues to escape their own franchise. was only needed.
The Red Wings’ lack of luck in the lottery has, of course, been talked about for years and is nothing new. He hasn’t been particularly unlucky this year, missing the big jump to the top three, but still landing in ninth place before the draw. But despair persisted. It wasn’t the lottery result itself that got the emotions going, just the lack of a break made the fans worse.
And that was enough to pique curiosity about how the Red Wings’ lack of lottery luck and resulting draft order declines are having an effect on the team’s rebuilding.
Below are what I found by year and some overall thoughts at the end.
2017
Rank before lottery: 7th place
lottery odds: 6.7% 1st pick, 7% 2nd pick, 7.2% 3rd pick
Rank after lottery: 9th place
A player selected between the pre-lottery ranking and the actualBy: Rias Anderson, Casey Mittelstadt
Player selected by Detroit: Michael Rasmussen
analysis: Detroit’s first year back in the draft lottery predicted what would happen in the years to come. The Red Wings dropped two spots from seventh to ninth.
Sure, if they could win the lottery and make it into the top three, Detroit’s rebuild would have gone pretty well. Four of the top five players selected in 2017 have been impactful players for their teams: Milo Huiskanen and Kale Makar are perpetual Norris-type defenders, Elias Pettersson is a center 100-pointer and the first Nico Isie, who was nominated for the 2nd, was an excellent number two. center.
Realistically, though, their odds of making the top three were far from high, and a drop from seventh to ninth didn’t hurt the Red Wings too much. Rasmussen blossomed as an important piece of Red Wing. He may not be a top-six center, but he plays a big role on the wing, is a penalty-kill horse, and looks like enough bets to score 40-plus points in a full season. He could hit 20 goals as early as next year, which may require him to eventually claim a netfront mandate on a power play, but that’s a major part of his plan. Yes, but not yet.
More importantly, for these purposes. No one wants the Red Wings to have had the opportunity to select Anderson for the No. 7 spot, and while Mittelstadt has finally broken out this season with a scoring Buffalo team, Rasmussen’s defense The value of will probably have an overall impact in a similar range.
If there’s any regret left in 2017, it’s the players Detroit took over. Top 6 centers Nick Suzuki, Robert Thomas, Josh Norris and Top 6 winger Martin Nekas were all in the squad at the time. Selection. It’s nothing to do with the lottery.
2018
Rank before lottery: Fifth
lottery odds: 1st pick 8.5%, 2nd 8.7%, 3rd 8.9%
Rank after lottery: 6th place
Players selected in order before the lottery: Barret Hayton
Player selected by Detroit: Philip Zadina
analysis: It was a similar story in 2018, where winning the unlikely lottery could send young stars Rasmus Darling and Andrei Svechnikov to Detroit, but the real lottery impact. From that point of view, going from five to six didn’t matter.
Zadina didn’t live up to expectations on draft day, and her drop to No. 6 was seen as a steal. Injuries didn’t help, but in nearly 200 NHL games, Zadina has yet to find a way to generate offensive power.
But while Hayton, the No. 5 pick, has scored 19 goals and 43 points for Arizona this season, the center of his regrets looking back is mainly the players who were handed over to the Red Wings. Walking the block in Detroit can’t help but recall Quinn Hughes being drafted by Vancouver one late, but even defensemen Evan Bouchard and Noah Dobson, who came out at Nos. 10 and 12. , would have really helped the Red Wings. And it’s their own doing.
2019
Rank before lottery: the 4th
lottery odds: 1st nomination 9.5%, 2nd 9.6%, 3rd 9.7%
Rank after lottery: 6th place
A player selected between the pre-lottery ranking and the actualBy: Bowen Byram, Alex Turcotte
Player selected by Detroit: Moritz Seider
analysis: By 2019, Detroit’s annual Lotto Night drop was a cruel joke, especially out of the sense that Byram, the draft’s top defenseman, could be off the board very close to the first pre-lotto standings. It was starting to feel like And in the end, that drop also took its toll on Detroit Byram. So did lottery dream No. 1 Jack Hughes, as well as top three picks Capo Kakko (No. 2) and Kirby Dach (No. 3).
But what about in terms of getting the draft’s top defenseman? Well, Detroit did it anyway, making a great choice at the time and picking Cider at No. 6. Four years later, Seider won the Calder Trophy to live up to his name and became one of the best young defensemen in the sport.
Trevor Zeglas and Dylan Cozens also got off to a great start, so it’s still up for debate as to where exactly Cider will go in the re-draft, but it’s probably inside the top four — and picked ahead of him. Of all the players, Cyder is almost certainly second to Hughes. Detroit is also excited about him, and in this case, it seems to have worked out very well for the Red Wings.
2020
Rank before lottery: Beginning
lottery odds: 1st place pick 18.5%, 2nd place pick 16.5%, 3rd place pick 14.4%
Rank after lottery: the 4th
A player selected between the pre-lottery ranking and the actualBy: Alexis Lafrenière, Quinton Byfield, Tim Statzl
Player selected by Detroit: Lucas Raymond
analysis: In Detroit, the lack of lottery luck has taken a real hit. After a truly miserable season in which the Red Wings were the worst team in the league, they had the highest odds for the No. 1 pick in the NHL, almost 50/50 odds of being picked in the top three. Instead, it dropped a maximum of 3 slots.
But here’s the thing: Detroit still has Raymond, and after two seasons he’s had far more success than 2020’s top two picks, Lafrenière and Byfield. No. 3 pick Stutzl looks like a midfield star, though, so what you think of the Red Wings’ lottery luck in 2020 will probably depend on how you think they’d do with the top two picks. If they had won the lottery and won Stutzl, he would have progressed similarly in Detroit, and certainly the value of the young 90-point center would skyrocket. But if they had settled for Lafrenière or Byfield, their situation could have been worse.
And we may never know the answer. I mean, this is the year Detroit got robbed for not hitting the lottery, but after such a miserable season, they could still have gotten a top 3 player in their class, and (now BTW) He might have done better on draft day than two of them. 3 teams before that.
2021
Rank before lottery: 6th place
lottery odds: 1st pick 7.6%, 2nd pick 7.8%
Rank after lottery: 6th place
Player selected by Detroit: Simon Edvinson
analysis: No drops here. This means that you will miss out on the 1st and 2nd place picks. Both hail from the backyard of the Red Wings in Ann Arbor. Owen Power looks like the Sabers’ stud No. 1 defenseman, and Matty Beniers is leading Seattle’s emerging playoff team. Both fit the Red Wings profile and both would have been great additions for Detroit.
What’s worth noting, though, is that the Red Wings did a pretty good job with Edvinson in this draft. While he may not end up being as impactful as Power, his growth potential is huge and he could be a full-timer in Detroit next season.
2022
Rank before lottery: 8th
lottery odds: 1st nomination 6.0%, 2nd 6.2%, 3rd 0.2%
Rank after lottery: 8th
Player selected by Detroit: Marco Kasper
analysis: Another example of Detroit picking exactly the right spot, but again, it’s all about lottery spots.
Really, it’s too early to draw any conclusions about the 2022 class. Top pick July Slafkowski had his season cut short by injury, No. 4 pick Shane Wright played just eight games in the NHL before returning to the juniors, No. 2 and No. Cooley has yet to appear. to debut. Similarly, Kasper, a Detroit draftee, has only appeared in one NHL game.
Cooley certainly seems to have a knack for dynamic attacking and could possibly be the Stützl of the class. No. 6 pick David Zilicek also looks like a strong Blue Line player and could be a top-three pick in the re-draft. However, with only a 6% draw probability for each of the top two, and no dropouts from eighth place, Detroit doesn’t feel too bad about getting here.
2023
Rank before lottery: 9th place
lottery odds: 1st nomination 5.0%, 2nd 5.2%, 3rd 0.2%
Rank after lottery: 9th place
Players selected in order before the lottery:to be decided
Player selected by Detroit:to be decided
Conclusion
There are two ways to approach the big picture of Detroit’s recent lottery performance.
On the other hand, if you look year-to-year, 2020 is the only year in which I experienced a real lottery-related major disappointment. And even that year, Detroit still got Raymond, and perhaps things could have been worse. Were it not for the foresight of choosing Mr. Stützle, it could have been in the top three, but in all fairness it might have had such foresight.
On the other hand, the Red Wings’ declining rota arguably helped them in 2019, and perhaps Mittelstadt or Hayton might have been minor upgrades in 2017 or 2018, but Detroit has neither to make a real difference. is not lacking either. Rather, the issue at the time had a lot to do with who the Red Wings front office kept on the board.
But still, even if 2020 was the only time the individual odds in a particular year were very strong, Detroit’s total lottery chances should probably be a decent amount by now. It is true. That break never came. Taking into account the extra chance of finishing 2nd or he 3rd, you should certainly expect some friendly bounce in that span. it never came.
And it still puts Detroit in a precarious position, even though it’s the most likely outcome each year. It probably won’t increase your odds of winning the lottery. First-round picks are already starting to slow down and will continue to do so. The lottery window may already be practically closed.
It certainly would be fair if fans felt a little fooled by the reality of seeing a team like Chicago quickly pay off after a rocky first year. Statistically, it’s probably an accurate feeling.
But on the flip side, if they had just gotten the first-round picks, which were available 15th overall since 2017, they could have gotten at least six: Robert Thomas, Candre Miller and Cole Miller. Corfield, Dawson Mercer, Wyatt Johnston and an impressive young Sabers prospect Ili Crich. There probably won’t be any true gamebreakers in that group either, but it would be an impressive young center to build on for any team, and it’s a terrifying “middle of mushy” year after year with talented players. Proof that it’s ready. And it’s just in 15th place.
Of course, it’s not fair to expect any team to have perfect foresight to find the best players each year, but no team really does. But if Detroit can find a player with such talent in 9th place this year (and possibly 17th), or one of two first-round picks next year, it’ll still create a winner to aim for. It should be possible. create.
Certainly it is not an easy road. But it’s increasingly looking like something the Red Wings have to take.
(Photo by Moritz Seider: Raj Mehta / USA Today)
