Home Sports Rosenthal: MLB’s massive free-agent spending is just getting started. Explaining the forces at work.

Rosenthal: MLB’s massive free-agent spending is just getting started. Explaining the forces at work.

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Tyler Anderson I jumped too fast.

Anyone can understand why Anderson agreed to a three-year, $39 million free agency deal on November 15th. angel Rather than accepting a one-year, $19.65 million conditional offer from dodgersIn Anderson’s first six seasons, his adjusted ERA was exactly league average. Last season, at age 32, he moved to the Dodgers and posted his eighth-best adjusted ERA in the majors. The Angels offered him nearly $40 million. He wanted to play in Anaheim. why are you confused?

reasonable question. It turned out to be too reasonable. Anderson acted rationally in an environment that quickly became irrational. Especially starting pitchers, but really all player contracts are getting crazy by the day. And the 2019 edition and his 2000-equivalent Winter-his-meeting extravaganza are just beginning, if not something in ancient Rome.

Justin Verlander, who turns 40 on Monday, February 20, has a new Mets teammate Max Scherzer, 38, $43.33 million, the highest average annual salary in gaming history.Trea Turner agreed Phillies With an 11-year, $300 million contract, he’ll breathlessly make it through to age 40. more.

Aaron Judge (MLB photo via Daniel Shirey/Getty Images)

Welcome to the perfect storm of baseball excess, the confluence of events that have already generated over $1 billion in free agency deals. Each deal is more surprising than the last and seemingly nonsensical. Still, it’s not surprising.

Consider the forces at work:

• This is the first full off-season for the new collective bargaining agreement. Owners have historically responded to guarantees of labor peace over sustained periods by spending more freely.

• Sports revenues approached $11 billion last season. According to Commissioner Rob ManfredThat number could surpass the $10.7 billion record set in 2019, the last full season played without COVID-19 restrictions.

• The league sold the remaining 15% of BAMTech to Disney in November for $900 million. That amount technically breaks down to him $30 million per team, but it’s possible the league withheld some of the money for the central fund.

• The new CBA’s higher luxury tax thresholds provide more flexibility for large consumers of games. The minimum threshold has increased from $210 million in 2021 to $230 million in 2022 and $233 million in 2023. Only the effects are beginning to appear. The last offseason started under the old CBA and ended after a 99-day lockout, resulting in a shortened conclusion to free agency.

• A newly expanded postseason format — and Padres The Phillies in the National League Championship Series — perhaps offering a club that previously ran similarly run great hopes and incentives to pay more.

So you got it, the makings of a splurge.

the off-season that started with Edwin Diaz He signed a five-year, $102 million deal with the Mets, making him the highest-paid relief pitcher in history. two other rescuers, Robert Suarez ($46 million over 5 years) and Rafael Montero ($34.5 million over three years) followed by an inflated deal. A general manager seeking help from the bullpen rushed to a meeting with his agency on Sunday night looking to sign a quality reliever to a reasonable two-year contract.

starting pitcher market peaked at Rangers Signature of Jacob deGrom Holding $185 million over five years was more intense than just the top. Two weeks after Anderson signed with the Angels, Zac Eflin and reached a $40 million deal over three years. Raise Despite only pitching 75 2/3 innings last season.

Matthew Boyd pitched 13 1/3 innings at Mariners one of his former teams last season tigers. Mike Clevinger participate in white socks He signed a one-year, $12 million contract after missing all of 2021 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and producing an adjusted ERA 14% below the league average in 2022. In less than a month, both could be bargains like Anderson.

The middle tier of free-agent starters, including Chris Basitt, Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Tyrone, Andrew Heaney and Tyjuan Walker, will be overpaid next. After deGrom signed, one of those pitchers received his five new offers, according to his agent, who spoke on condition of anonymity during negotiations. Bassitt and Eovaldi may be weighed down a bit by their qualifying offers. But in a situation where money is flying around, teams may even turn a blind eye to the possibility of giving up one or two draft picks and his space in the international bonus pool to get the pitcher they want. Is there

Of course, it’s not just the starting pitchers who benefit. Let’s fast-forward to the 2031 Phillies to see some of the possible implications of trading larger position players. Bryce Harper He will turn 38 that season and enter the final year of his contract. Turner also turns 38, but has two years left on his contract. The Phillies get to enjoy relatively low average annual worths for both players — Turner with his $27.27 million, which ranks him 27th all-time, and Harper with his $25.38 million, which ranks him 35th. However, both agreements contain complete no-deal clauses and no opt-outs. Neither player is going anywhere without something dramatic.

All of this is fine as long as the team delivers the results they expect early in the deal. Harper has been a well-deserved player for the Phillies so far, earning him the MVP award in 2021 and leading him to the World Series in 2022, while Tommy said he had John surgery on his elbow. injury caused him to serve as DH. How will Harper age?What kind of player will Turner be when he starts to lose speed?Neither question bothers the Phillies. He can win a World Series or he can win two while each is under contract.

The frequently injured deGrom’s performance over the next five years probably deserves closer scrutiny. At $86.66 million, Verlander isn’t a bargain, but the Mets, who are nearly $100 million less than deGrom, are almost blindsided by their “savings.”

Hey, it’s not my money, it’s not your money.The price of a ticket is determined by the principle of supply and demand, not the size of a player’s contract. would not use And do they ever have it.

Poor Tyler Anderson. He got richer before he got richer.2022-23 In his offseason quirkiness, he’s baseball’s unfortunate son.

(Trea Turner top photo: Ronald Martinez/Getty Images)

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