DETROIT — New electric vehicle models from multiple automakers are beginning to undermine Tesla’s dominance in the U.S. electric vehicle market, according to national vehicle registration data.
But in the first nine months of the year, Tesla still controlled about 65% of the growing electric vehicle market, according to figures compiled by S&P Global Mobility. And competitors profited in the sub-$50,000 sticker price range, where Tesla has little competition.
From 2018 to 2020, Tesla held about 80% of the EV market. That share will drop to 71% in 2021 and has continued to decline since, said Stephanie Brinley, associate director at the S&P.
S&P Global Mobility said in a statement on Tuesday, “Tesla’s position is changing as new more affordable options emerge, offering equal or better technology and production structures.” Given growing consumer choice and consumer interest, Tesla’s ability to maintain a dominant market share will continue to be challenged.”
Electric vehicles have gained 2.4% in U.S. market share this year, growing to 5.2% of all light vehicle registrations, according to S&P. Of the 525,000 electric vehicles registered in the first nine months of this year, about 65%, or 340,000, were Tesla vehicles, according to S&P.
Despite its small market share, Tesla expects sales to continue to grow as consumer interest grows, Brinley said. “Her EV market in 2022 is the Tesla market, and that will continue as long as competitors are capped at production capacity,” she said.
Shortages of computer chips and other parts are preventing many competitors, including Ford, General Motors, Hyundai, Kia and Volkswagen, from running their factories at full capacity to meet demand.
Tesla also faces competition at the high end of the market from the likes of BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Polestar, Rivian and Lucid.
S&P expects that there are 48 EV models currently on sale in the US, increasing to 159 by the end of 2025.
Tesla plans to introduce a Cybertruck pickup next year and a new Roadster at an undetermined date, according to S&P, but otherwise the 2025 line-up of minicar models will be the same as it is today. will deliver some electric semis to PepsiCo on Thursday.
S&P also found that the majority of consumers who purchased battery electric vehicles so far this year owned Honda and Toyota vehicles before making the switch. Both companies have fuel-efficient internal combustion engines and hybrid models, but the rollout of EVs in the US has been slow.
Tesla’s Model Y small SUV and Model 3 small sedan are the top two SUVs, accounting for more than half of all electric vehicle registrations, according to Brinley. Ford’s Mustang Mach E was his third, followed by his two Teslas, a Model S sedan and an X SUV. The top ten EVs were the Chevrolet Volt sedan and his SUV, Hyundai Ionic 5, Kia EV6, Volkswagen ID.4 and Nissan Leaf.